Japan is still waiting dawn, But China is very bright

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Since I'm very close to these two countries, I could provide some info. Japan is still a down market, but just some good companies are pretty good like TOYOTA and Nintendo. Nintendo is quite good cauz the profit from hot Wii. Comparing its tri-foe in US, Toyota has better and harder financial statement. Or Rakuten ( http:// www.rakuten.co.jp/ ), the critical player in online auction in Japan, is also a good choice. In my point of view, I would buy in unless the Nikke is rising very obviously.

China still got a lot of money-sucker-monsters unlisted. Just like China Tobacco, its revenue and margin are expected to be similar to Microsoft. Remember it just made cigarettes. The retail price of one pack is around 8 US and 30millions of packs are produced daily. Since China got over 1.6-1.7 billions of people(about 0.2-0.3 are not registered). The number is reasonable. A ink print companies is listed just because it prints China Tobacco's pack.

China Tobacco is expected to launch IPO in 2009.It will push up stock market to the new peak. How many cigarette manufactures are not listed? Over 50. And only few wine manufactures are listed Those are what I called money-sucker-monsters. Another industry is travel and leisure. China's public travel agencies serve 100 millions of tourists annually and earn millions of money. At the last, still few "dominant" medical instrument produce more and more annually.

Why China stock market can keep up? Most of big companies are owned by gov right now and are "dominant". So that they can earn very easily. Take China Petroleum & Chemical-h for example, over 50% of 90,000 gas stations in China are owned by it. Dominant and profitable.

That's my reason to invest China but not Japan. I've earned over 60% in 2006 by holding AllianceBernstein Great China fund ( http://www.alliancebernstein.com/investments/us/MutualFundDetail.aspx?cid=18669&ft=f ). It's not the best. You should find some others in your area.

這是我回答外國人投資日本和中國的觀點。

因為我距離這兩個國家很近，我會有些西方人沒有的觀點。日本仍欲振乏力，但它不乏好公司如受惠Wii的任天堂、有比美國三大車廠強很多財報的豐田還有網路拍賣要角的樂天。要等日本市場真的開始上昇我才會進場。

中國仍有很多未上市的吸金大怪物。像中華牌香煙，粗估營收和獲利與微軟很類似，請記住它只是把煙草捲在小紙片裡而已。中華牌香煙每包約8美金，一天生產3000萬包。因為中國有約16億到17億人（2~3億的黑戶），所以每日3000萬包還算合理的數字。有一家印刷廠只幫它印盒子就上市了。

中華牌香煙預計2009年上市，上市後會把滬指帶到另一個新高。還有多少家煙廠沒上市呢？超過50家吧！而且目前也只有少數酒廠上市，亦是我所說的吸金怪物。另一個是產業是休閒旅遊業，中國的公立旅遊業一年要服務1億的遊客，賺進成千上億的錢。最後，還有些壟斷性的醫療器材商逐年增產。

為何中國的股市可以不斷上揚？目前大部份的中國大公司還是國營且壟斷。所以他們很好賺。如中國石油化，掌握境內九萬座加油站的50%。壟斷和獲利是最大的特色。