tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-96409082024-03-14T12:27:42.023+08:0077 UP THE WOLDJust the record of life. The observation to macro economic, investment, social life, food and wine.77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.comBlogger370125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-74228593155258309952013-10-07T14:17:00.002+08:002013-10-07T14:18:59.992+08:00新種類的貓是長這樣<div id="fb-root">
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77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-10654702302513940962012-03-12T19:18:00.001+08:002012-03-12T19:18:53.038+08:00西方國家租金比台灣高的原因<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; text-align: left;">客人問我為什麼日本、英國、美國、還有其他西方國家,甚至大陸香港。其租金收益都遠遠超過台灣。雖然日本和西方是因為有比較重的不動產稅,但英國完全是零的。而大陸基本上沒有房地產稅這種東西,香港我就不太了解,我記得是零,就算有也不高。那為何會有這樣的差異?如果這麼好,台灣人怎麼不去買,當地人有錢人又為什麼不買?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; text-align: left;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; text-align: left;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; text-align: left;">其實我要說的是,西方的資本市場比台灣、大陸、甚或日本要好太多了。大家以為的西方股市很大,但事實上西方的債市是股市的十倍以上的大,而對西方的資本家來說,真正穩定的又能隨時變現的投資就是債。而房地產變現和流動,及市場的公開程度比債還要差,所以自然會被要求比債更高的收益。比如<a href="http://quicktake.morningstar.com/StockNet/Bondsquote.aspx?bid=b8e83910f26185d02dca3db5d89731e1&bname=Coca+Cola+7.375%25+%7c+Maturity%3a2093&ticker=KO&country=USA&clientid=dotcom">可口可樂</a>目前有一檔2093年到期的債,目前收益/現價為5.55%。而不管是倫敦還是紐約,其租金稅後收益大抵都超過這個收益,不然就乾脆買可口可樂債算了。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; text-align: left;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; text-align: left;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; text-align: left;">當然客人會反駁可口可樂會有機會倒,我都是跟客人說明,重點不在於可口可樂會不會倒,而是一個散戶,都可以在MorningStar查到600多家美國公司的債券現況。台灣的保德信人壽,其美元的保單頂多才3.5%吧?但如果你當美商保德信的債主,它有一檔<a href="http://quicktake.morningstar.com/StockNet/Bondsquote.aspx?bid=2db74bb296b552a050391a72ef112228&bname=Prudential+Hldgs+7.245%25+%7c+Maturity%3a2023&ticker=PRU&country=USA&clientid=dotcom">2023年底到期的債</a>,要給你8.4%的債息。當你是三億以上六十歲左右退休族,你是要讓保德信每年給你這些債息,還是要把錢統統壓在房地產上,還要煩惱維護還有收租的問題?我覺得兩者都要,只是前者是以保本為前提,後者是要付出冒險的代價,以賭未來增值還能賺錢。這完全是資產配置問題,沒有什麼對錯。因為每個人熟悉的工具都不相同。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; text-align: left;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; text-align: left;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 20px; text-align: left;">亞洲本地的債券市場其實還在發展中,規模也很小,投資人不熟悉很正常。所以有錢人有了錢,把錢往房地產投也變得很能預期。所以亞洲的租金收益少於西方,也是非常合理的。而因為如此,反而在台灣的不動產和西方的債券中,有了一些套利的空間。尤其是29.5的現在。讀者應廳理解我在說什麼了吧?</span>77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-29135649701496634342012-01-03T11:13:00.003+08:002012-01-03T11:13:58.349+08:0012/17張繼文的演講的重點<br style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;">歐盟的未來有三</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;">1.梅克爾用金錢統一歐洲,將成員國的預算權和財政部全由德國掌</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="background-color: white; display: inline-block; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;"></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;">控,完成希特勒第三帝國的夢想。未來只有單一的歐洲債,沒有義大</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="background-color: white; display: inline-block; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;"></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;">利債、西班牙債也不體有希臘債。但歐洲會和日本一樣陷入「還債的</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="background-color: white; display: inline-block; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;"></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;">失落的十年」,歐元和歐元資產會緩貶。</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;">2.北方國把南方小豬趕出歐盟,建立歐盟退出機制。此舉必須要承</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="background-color: white; display: inline-block; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;"></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;">擔法德兩國銀行的大虧損。歐元會急貶後,再緩步回升。</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;">3.德國人決定退出歐盟自己用馬克,歐元瓦解,所有歐元計價的資</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="background-color: white; display: inline-block; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;"></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;">產將陷入無法評價。造成西方金融體系大崩盤,亞洲的外匯存底也因</span><wbr style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;"></wbr><span class="word_break" style="background-color: white; display: inline-block; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;"></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;">此變成壁紙。印證2012世界未日。</span><br style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;" /><span class="text_exposed_show" style="background-color: white; display: inline; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px; text-align: left;"><br />講師認為第3是不可能發生的。目前德國的民意以2為主流。若選1<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>,德國人雖當了歐洲老大,但得辛苦工作幫『小漢』還錢。加上梅克<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>爾的個性和阿九一樣看民調做決策,選2的機率頗高。<br /><br />如果你有在玩外匯,當上述三種狀況之一發生時,你應該知道怎麼做<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>了吧?<br /><br />個人意見:自柏林圍牆倒掉,德國歷任總理花了二十年和周邊國家和<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>解。舉例與波蘭總理一起跪在教堂裡祈禱兩國不再有戰爭。2008<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>年更為了和法國和解1100年來,「最後一課」中的洛林和阿爾薩<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>斯的歷史,一起合編中學的歷史課本。(中日兩國願意嗎?)我認為<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>在德國中,非基民盟的其他政黨領袖,一定不甘於選第2個選項,而<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>會希望向第1個選項,不然過去二十多年的努力豈不前功盡棄?而最<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>近歐盟峰會的結果,讓我們看到第1選項的雛形了。<br /><br />1/<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>7的主講呂老師,在2010年中,就預言伊朗可能封鎖荷姆茲海峽(<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>台灣8成的石油航線,亞洲六成的石油航線)。油價直攻500美元<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>都成了可能。如今這項預言終於浮上檯面,世界前景堪憂。<br /><br />因本人操作過外匯和原物料的標的,所以整理的重點也在此。講師上<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>課不會只講這一些,還會提到台股、陸股、美股還有其他市場的股票<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>與債券市場。舉例2010年就有聽眾賺到大x發主昇段。<br /><br />提醒大家,過去不等於未來,本演講中提到的代號有可能賺也有可能<wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="display: inline-block;"></span>賠,請控制自己的情緒。<br /><br />預祝大家2012年選對標的,投資都有很好的豐收!</span>77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-50641406911511644892011-09-17T09:29:00.000+08:002011-09-17T09:29:31.838+08:00線上租賃網站的讀後感<br />
<h1 class="txt-hdr-pg pdp-hvr-title" style="border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font-family: MuseoSansRounded-700; font-size: 24px; font: inherit; line-height: 13px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 20px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 400px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 15px;">線上租賃的市場如火如荼(WSJ的報導在連結可<a href="http://ge.tt/8G4V0r7"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: blue;"><b>下載</b></span></a>),現在Zi<span style="color: black;">pcar雖已上市,可是還是持續虧錢中。我現在比較好奇的是,Z</span><wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="color: black; display: block; float: left; margin-left: -10px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></span><span style="color: black;">ipcar的會員是什麼樣的人?購併這家公司是否能從這群客戶獲</span><wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="color: black; display: block; float: left; margin-left: -10px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></span><span style="color: black;">得非本業額外的利益?尤其對金融業而言,這群客戶是否更易用到理</span><wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="color: black; display: block; float: left; margin-left: -10px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></span>財商品?<br /><br /><span style="color: black;">而Airbnb是個money burning,如果經營者不懂得和旅行相關的網站及業者充分合</span><wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="color: black; display: block; float: left; margin-left: -10px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></span><span style="color: black;">作,我看投資者很快會失去耐性。就像591一樣,得每隔一兩個月</span><wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="color: black; display: block; float: left; margin-left: -10px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></span><span style="color: black;">就砸電視廣告,提醒大眾碰到房子的事情不要忘了他們一樣。但Ai</span><wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="color: black; display: block; float: left; margin-left: -10px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></span><span style="color: black;">rbnb不像美國的trulia或zillow有大量的房仲為重</span><wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="color: black; display: block; float: left; margin-left: -10px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></span><span style="color: black;">量用戶,如果它不能把旅遊相關業者變成重量用戶,那我看最後大概</span><wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="color: black; display: block; float: left; margin-left: -10px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></span>也難以為繼。<br /><br /><span style="color: black;">chegg的網站做得還蠻完整的,但以它租一本Conceptu</span><wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="color: black; display: block; float: left; margin-left: -10px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></span><span style="color: black;">al Physics竟要49.99美元,相對在台灣買國際版的也比這</span><wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="color: black; display: block; float: left; margin-left: -10px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></span><span style="color: black;">個便宜,可預見該網站租賃教科書的服務是會碰到天花板的。所以它</span><wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="color: black; display: block; float: left; margin-left: -10px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></span>才開始搞別的類別來擴大營收。<br /><br /><span style="color: black;">Rent the runaway最大的問題是怎麼reach到那群要常穿新的禮服</span><wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="color: black; display: block; float: left; margin-left: -10px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></span><span style="color: black;">的女士吧?也是俗稱的貴婦團或愛美女士團,衣服的周轉不夠快的話</span><wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="color: black; display: block; float: left; margin-left: -10px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></span>,庫存會把錢燒光的。<br /><br /><span style="color: black;">目前看起來還是Zipcar的未來最光明,因為其會員的價值似乎</span><wbr></wbr><span class="word_break" style="color: black; display: block; float: left; margin-left: -10px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px;"></span>是最高。</span></h1>
77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0Taipei City, Taiwan25.091075 121.559834524.976033 121.401906 25.206117 121.71776299999999tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-73441320558215048272011-02-25T17:13:00.000+08:002011-02-25T17:13:42.741+08:00投資VXX的方法以下為2/16日通知股友的文章<div>2/16 進場27.72</div><div>2/25 現價33.68</div><div>帳面上是21.5%的獲利</div><div><div style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;">=====================</span></span></div><div style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;">這是新投資標的<span style="background-color: yellow;"><span class="il" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #eeea93; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; color: #222222;">VXX</span></span>的操作假設</span></span></div><div style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><span style="border-collapse: collapse; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;"></span><span style="color: #333333;"><br />
</span><span style="color: #333333;">因為他是對應<span style="background-color: yellow;">VIX(恐慌指數)</span>的期貨,</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">所以漲跌幅不會完全和VIX完全相同</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">上了</span><a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/" style="color: #0000cc;" target="_blank">finance.yahoo.com</a><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">都有comparasion功能</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">請分別找出2010/4/1-2010/6/1日期時</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">VIX vs <span class="il" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #eeea93; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; color: #222222;">VXX</span>的comparasion</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">再看一下單獨SP500的表現</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">當時 SP500在高峰期,然後一個大修正</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">VIX從</span><span style="background-color: yellow; color: #333333;">15->45</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;"><span class="il" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #eeea93; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; color: #222222;">VXX</span>從約</span><span style="background-color: yellow;"><span style="color: #333333;">80->136 約</span><span style="color: red;">60%</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">同時期的SP500從</span><span style="background-color: yellow; color: #333333;">1210->1071</span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #333333;">操作方法</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">『假設』(這是『假設』再次強調)</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">SP500會如同去年這個時期一樣</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">在一個月至兩個月內大幅修正</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">所以我們在此時做分批布局探底部</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">如同 2010/4/1至2010/5/3那樣底部布局</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">當恐慌賣壓出現如5/3-5/7短短四天</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">就可以獲利40%出場(如果分批布局會更多一些)</span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #333333;">此方法的問題是假設美股最近會修正</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">萬一美股漲三個月</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">那這個方法有風險</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">期貨每月要換倉,若是該指數處於低部盤整</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">我們有可能在換倉時發生正逆價差形成獲利或損失。</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">也就是為什麼2010/9以後指數才跌30%但<span class="il" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: #eeea93; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; color: #222222;">VXX</span>已跌60%</span><span style="color: #333333;"><wbr></wbr>的原因</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">我們要做兩個月最多三個月內的短打</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">按過去的常理SP500從1050漲到現在1321該修正一下了</span><span style="color: #333333;"><wbr></wbr>吧?</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">但過去不等於未來,也許這次回去的錢真的可以把它</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">頂到前高1500點,who knows.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #333333;">所以若是不幸美股太強又走了兩個月多頭…</span><span style="color: #333333;">可能要問自己要不要繼續<wbr></wbr>撐。</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;">因為從2009/3/9大反彈到2010/1/20有十個月,</span><span style="color: #333333;">萬<wbr></wbr>一從去年九月彈到今年五月,那我們真的很慘。</span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #333333;">但若很幸運下個月就有個大修正。記得賺到就落袋為安</span></span></div></div>77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-36867861015492978702010-10-04T18:16:00.003+08:002010-10-04T18:45:24.768+08:00劉必榮20101002當前國際關係與金磚四國中日之爭<br /><object width="640" height="26" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000"><param value="true" name="allowfullscreen"><param value="always" name="allowscriptaccess"><param value="high" name="quality"><param value="true" name="cachebusting"><param value="#000000" name="bgcolor"><param name="movie" value="http://www.archive.org/flow/flowplayer.commercial-3.2.1.swf"><param 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flashvars="config={'key':'#$aa4baff94a9bdcafce8','playlist':[{'url':'A101002004.mp3','autoPlay':false}],'clip':{'autoPlay':true,'baseUrl':'http://www.archive.org/download/InternationalPoliticsAndBric_706/'},'canvas':{'backgroundColor':'#000000','backgroundGradient':'none'},'plugins':{'audio':{'url':'http://www.archive.org/flow/flowplayer.audio-3.2.1-dev.swf'},'controls':{'playlist':false,'fullscreen':false,'height':26,'backgroundColor':'#000000','autoHide':{'fullscreenOnly':true},'scrubberHeightRatio':0.6,'timeFontSize':9,'mute':false,'top':0}},'contextMenu':[{},'-','Flowplayer v3.2.1']}"> </embed></object>77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-30940606055265369272010-06-02T11:23:00.000+08:002010-10-19T11:24:46.089+08:00六月市場訊息解讀<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">台股:</span><span lang="EN-US">7030-8190</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">整理盤</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">A</span><span style="font-family:新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">股:目前是買點</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">巴西:下修至</span><span lang="EN-US">54000</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">才安全</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">能源:不易跌破</span><span lang="EN-US">60</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">,站回</span><span lang="EN-US">72</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">美元多頭再起</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">兩韓真的開打─快閃,所有部位出場</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">呂宗耀、謝金河、<st1:personname st="on">陳</st1:personname>聰瑞開始喊進時,通常不太好。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">7000</span><span style="font-family:新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">以下都是低點,以自我的風險能力部局。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">M1b</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:Wingdings;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings"><span style="mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings">à</span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">大陸加碼</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">打房措施</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:Wingdings;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings"><span style="mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings">à</span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">適度</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings">à</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">告一段落。大陸的銀行股可以開始進場</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">中國農行要</span><span lang="EN-US">IPO</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">,可能如建行、工行一樣,可帶動地產股</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">總結:目前是高點</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:Wingdings;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings"><span style="mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings">à</span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">跌到快</span><span lang="EN-US">50</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">元,目前約是</span><span lang="EN-US">60</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">元位置。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">兩韓:</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">韓國會否開戰?</span><span lang="EN-US">[</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">劉教授是以</span><span lang="EN-US">200</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">年的西方正常運作邏輯來評斷</span><span lang="EN-US">]</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">怪點:</span><span lang="EN-US">(1)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">北韓魚雷路徑</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>(2)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">發布時間?怎麼會南韓剛好要選舉?</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">正常不會打,但北韓不是正常國家。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">建議明天就落跑</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">中美論壇:把人民幣的昇值拉到後頭,先處理北韓。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">可能在不知道的情況下,擴大波動匯率區間。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">歐債對基本面影響有限</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">目前</span><span lang="EN-US">(1)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">資金面</span><span lang="EN-US">(2)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">信心面不足</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">要看四樣指標</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(1)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US">VIX(2)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">美元指數</span><span lang="EN-US">(3)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">黃金</span><span lang="EN-US">(4)</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">歐洲主權國家</span><span lang="EN-US">CDS</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">價格</span><span lang="EN-US">(5)Libor(</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">現在市場資金有緊縮現象</span><span lang="EN-US">)(6)TED spread</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">希臘為何無解?</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l5 level1 lfo2; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(1)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">政府長期不當舉債!高度社福制度所至</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l5 level1 lfo2; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(2)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">公務員</span><span lang="EN-US">40</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">歲可以退休</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">德國</span><span lang="EN-US">67</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">歲才能退休</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">終生退休金,且死後子女可以領退休金至死。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l5 level1 lfo2; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(3)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">準時上班有紅利</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l5 level1 lfo2; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(4)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">會用電腦有紅利</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l5 level1 lfo2; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(5)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">公務人員佔總勞動人口</span><span lang="EN-US">10%</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">,泛公務員有</span><span lang="EN-US">30%</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l5 level1 lfo2; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(6)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">馬斯垂克條約的規定中:歐盟的財政赤字</span><span lang="EN-US">/GDP</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">是</span><span lang="EN-US">3%</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">,希臘是</span><span lang="EN-US">12.7%</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l5 level1 lfo2; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(7)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">穩定與成長公約中:歐盟的政府負債</span><span lang="EN-US">/GDP</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">是</span><span lang="EN-US">60%</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">,希臘是</span><span lang="EN-US">113%</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">德國央行總裁:願助希臘,但是希臘要付出<span style="color:red">難以置信的努力</span>才能脫離。最大的債權缺口是三年後。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">利息支出佔全國</span><span lang="EN-US">5%=></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">明年有</span><span lang="EN-US">10%GDP</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">要繳利息,希臘政府外債有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color:red">82%</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">是外國人持有</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">日本人持日本債</span><span lang="EN-US">)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">希:社會結構、人口高齡化導致還債能力弱化。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">要做停利、停損來操作:因為趨勢無法形成。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">下半年:陸資成台灣最重要外資。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">資金怎麼看:</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo3; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(1)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US">M1b</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">年增率連四個月下降,</span><span lang="EN-US">M1b</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">的年增率止穩,該處應為台股底部。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo3; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(2)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><st1:personname st="on"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">陳</span></st1:personname><span style="font-family:新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">忠瑞的觀點:</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />(a)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">目前可能是季</span><span lang="EN-US">GDP</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">成長高點,第一季是</span><span lang="EN-US">13.27%-></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">通常高點</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US">(b)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">目前是</span><span lang="EN-US">M1b</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">季高點</span><span lang="EN-US">-></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">通常也是高點</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt"><span style="font-family:新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">沒有政治盤的話,通常是高點。但現在有政治盤,所以未知。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">中國「民工荒」</span><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:Wingdings;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-char-type:symbol; mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings"><span style="mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings">à</span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">大半就業在西半部</span><span lang="EN-US"><br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:Wingdings;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-char-type:symbol; mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings"><span style="mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings">à</span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">穩增長、抗通膨、調結構</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">一胎化後,</span><span lang="EN-US">80</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">後、</span><span lang="EN-US">80</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">後後、</span><span lang="EN-US">90</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">後、</span><span lang="EN-US">90</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">後後耐力差</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">尹衍梁,捐了鷹廈鐵路,又設光華獎學金培養很多大陸的中生代從政者。潤泰適合中長線部局。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">目前短線可以玩益航。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">電動車、電子書、智慧電網,是故事多、<span style="color:red">夢想多,大部份不賺錢</span>。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><st1:chmetcnv tcsc="0" numbertype="1" negative="False" hasspace="False" sourcevalue="3" unitname="g" st="on"><span lang="EN-US">3G</span></st1:chmetcnv><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">、</span><span lang="EN-US">LED TV</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">、觸動面板、內需</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings">à</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">基本面。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">綠能關鍵是原物料,原物料才是基本面</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">台灣人是要買中國移動還是中華電信?</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">銀行要進入大陸機會不大,外商已進入六年。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">復華私募中國成長、中國增長:香港</span><span lang="EN-US">H</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">股、上海</span><span lang="EN-US">IPO</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">掛牌。私募只要</span><span lang="EN-US">25</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">人成立。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">中國大潤發</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">月要掛牌,復華投信有</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">年的股東是尹衍梁</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">經濟指標</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">制造指數:美</span><span lang="EN-US">ISM</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">、中</span><span lang="EN-US">PMI</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">、日</span><span lang="EN-US">TANKAN</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">、德</span><span lang="EN-US">IFO</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">目前確定回復,但不知道力道。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">溫和通膨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:Wingdings;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings"><span style="mso-char-type:symbol;mso-symbol-font-family:Wingdings">à</span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">股市最有機會。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l6 level1 lfo4; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(1)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US">CPI(2)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">資產價格變化,列入利率變化的<span style="color:red">考慮</span>,低利是道德風險的環境。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">目前生產率是復甦拍打?和碩:施崇棠暗示「旺季不旺、淡季更淡」</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">美國看房地產</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo5; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(1)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">新屋開工</span><span lang="EN-US">(2)(3)(4)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">成屋銷售</span><span lang="EN-US">(5)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">銀行中貸:目前是緩慢復甦。</span><span lang="EN-US">2007.06</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">是高點,跌下來到</span><span lang="EN-US">2000</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">年起漲點一些些而已。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">中國+東協(恩寵-侍從關係)</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">當中國統治世界 500頁</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">希臘:社福</span><span lang="EN-US">20.5%</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">,稅收</span><span lang="EN-US"> 7.5%</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">上星期五</span><span lang="EN-US">54%</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">的德國人主張把希臘踢出歐盟。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">A</span><span style="font-family:新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">股和</span><span lang="EN-US">H</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">股有溢價</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">和碩不急著認。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l3 level1 lfo6; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(1)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">歐債首衝雙</span><span lang="EN-US">A</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">和</span><span lang="EN-US">HTC</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l3 level1 lfo6; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(2)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">價格</span><span lang="EN-US">40</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">超過合理價</span><span lang="EN-US"> 25-28</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">元</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">P/E</span><span style="font-family:新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">均價:新股是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color:red">8</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:red">倍</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">,這是經驗值,超過</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color:red">8</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman";color:red">倍</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">打問號,超過</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color:red">12</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman";color:red">倍</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">,壓力出來。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">公債殖利率負斜率仍是景氣反轉指標。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l4 level1 lfo7; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(1)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">正常</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">長率</span><span lang="EN-US">></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">短率</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l4 level1 lfo7; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(2)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">反常</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">短率</span><span lang="EN-US">></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">長率</span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="mso-spacerun:yes"> </span>A</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">預補資金</span><span lang="EN-US"> B</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">預期景氣下修。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">目前<span style="color:red">熱錢太多,利差交易太多</span>。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">PIMCO</span><span style="font-family:新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">就看殖利率。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">人民銀行</span><span lang="EN-US"><br />(1)CPI 3%</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">就昇息,目前是</span><span lang="EN-US">2.8%</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l4 level1 lfo7; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(3)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">美國初級失業人數</span><span lang="EN-US"> 36.5</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">萬人,向上突破就降息</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l4 level1 lfo7; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(4)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">失業率</span><span lang="EN-US">9.8%</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">戰後</span><span lang="EN-US">6-7%(</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">平均</span><span lang="EN-US">)FED</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">若看到,只要一直維持</span><span lang="EN-US">10%</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">左右,不會昇息</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-list:l4 level1 lfo7; tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman""><span style="mso-list:Ignore">(5)<span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""> </span></span></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">產能利用率</span><span lang="EN-US">(</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">過去景氣好到</span><span lang="EN-US">90%)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">目前是</span><span lang="EN-US">71%</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">只要沒有</span><span lang="EN-US">6-7%</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"">,都是資金行情</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">PIMCO</span><span style="font-family:新細明體; mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">認為美國本年不昇息</span><span lang="EN-US">!</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">初步打房有達成目標。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">2.8%-></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">大行比預期</span><span lang="EN-US">-></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman";mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">內需漲</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family:"Times New Roman"">美國昇息、日元又變利差交易目標</span></p>77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-59577093990601876602010-05-18T17:45:00.006+08:002010-10-04T18:58:33.746+08:002010.05看全年投資<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">講師:呂忠達 </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 新細明體; ">時地:<span lang="EN-US">2010.05.13 </span>台北金融發展研訓中心</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">講師的投資邏輯「<b>政治是最大的經濟,貨幣是最大權力,投資一連串歷史的重覆</b>」<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial; mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:Arial;font-size:13.5pt;color:black;">本月盤勢解讀:</span></u><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-font-kerning:0pt;font-family:Arial;font-size:13.5pt;color:black;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">最近的這波下挫,這是多頭市場中型修正,屬於技術性回檔。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">因此,台股年線關卡:<span lang="EN-US">7400-7450就顯得很重要<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-ascii-font-family:Arial; mso-hansi-font-family:Arial;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:Arial;font-size:13.5pt;color:black;">本月盤勢解讀:</span></u><u><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-font-kerning:0pt;font-family:Arial;font-size:13.5pt;color:black;"><o:p></o:p></span></u></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">預估,美股至年底前應該還有<span lang="EN-US">10%</span>的利潤<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">亞洲看好:今年新興亞洲的資本利得會超過<span lang="EN-US">10%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">2010.05.10~2010.05.28</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">應該是相對底部,有可能急跌緩漲。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">五月初,導瓊大盤盤中跌<span lang="EN-US">1000</span>點,絕對不是在基本面,而是意外,是事件引發。不必過度擔憂。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">今年的股勢解讀,有兩種相反看法:</span></u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體; mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">多頭:以美國為首的<span lang="EN-US">EPS</span>若有好轉,現在的股市上漲有基本面支撐;<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">空頭:但若是季所公布的<span lang="EN-US">EPS</span>不如預期或下修,目前可能是今年的高檔。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">多頭看法下<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">全球股市三假設</span></u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(1)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:7.0pt; mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-size:12.0pt;color:black;"> </span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">主要國家央行還沒昇息<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(2)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:7.0pt; mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-size:12.0pt;color:black;"> </span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">美國仍在溫和復甦<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(3)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:7.0pt; mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-size:12.0pt;color:black;"> </span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">中國經濟高速成長。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">只要逢希臘或其他三豬債信危機,就逢低進場<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p><span style="text-decoration:none"> </span></o:p></span></u></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">美國的現況</span></u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">1.</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">借美元投資各區利差交易<span lang="EN-US">carry trade</span>仍嚴重,因為投機客賭短期美國聯準會不會昇息的原因有二:<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(1)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">失業率<span lang="EN-US">9.7%</span>,過去的失業率是<span lang="EN-US">6~7%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(2)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">過去高峰的產能利用率<span lang="EN-US">88%</span>,目前是<span lang="EN-US">71%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">但盲點有二:<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(1)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">過去的經驗不一定準<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(2)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">通膨問題有可能捲土重來<span lang="EN-US">(</span>墨西哥灣產油佔美國進口<span lang="EN-US">33%</span>,偏偏現在漏油<span lang="EN-US">)<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">2.</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">美元本身雙赤字老問題<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(1)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">與中國的貿易赤字仍嚴重<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(2)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">軍備支出太多<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">過去的經驗:<b>美金走強,投資戒慎;美金走弱,投資貪婪</b>。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">美國極有<b>可能</b>處於<b>失業型復甦</b><span lang="EN-US">(jobless recovery)</span></span></u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">多頭市場的前提下,當<span lang="EN-US">Fed</span>昇息一到二周內應該是會害怕而產生市場波動,但以正常的利率水準來看,不過是讓利率從過度扭曲轉到正常健康。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">目前操作<b>策略</b>:賺<span lang="EN-US">10%</span>就閃,設好波段的停利點<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">歐洲發什麼事<span lang="EN-US">?</span></span></u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(1)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-size:12.0pt;color:black;"> </span><span style="font-family:新細明體; mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">最近索羅斯為首的資本巨鱷咬四豬<span lang="EN-US">(PIGS</span>葡意希西<span lang="EN-US">)</span>,狠狠地放空歐元<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(2)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-size:12.0pt;color:black;"> </span><span style="font-family:新細明體; mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">南歐四國天性浪漫,借貸度日,希臘三個被打死的是拒絕放貸信用貸款的銀行員,可見希臘人借錢度日的積習一時難改。其他三國亦是如此。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(3)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-size:12.0pt;color:black;"> </span><span style="font-family:新細明體; mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">德國期中選舉,西巴伐利亞<span lang="EN-US">(</span>佔德國五分之一<span lang="EN-US">)</span>否決梅克爾的救援案<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(4)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-size:12.0pt;color:black;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">G19</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">的希臘短期債是<span lang="EN-US">85</span>億,潛在負債高達<span lang="EN-US">3000</span>億歐元,而西班牙是<span lang="EN-US">G11</span>有更嚇人的負債,之後的每個月,都會有四豬的國債到期。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(5)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-size:12.0pt;color:black;"> </span><span style="font-family:新細明體; mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">阿爾卑斯以北的西歐國不可能永遠救援南歐,歐盟出現「逐出家門」危機<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(6)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-size:12.0pt;color:black;"> </span><span style="font-family:新細明體; mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">因為全球大金主中國在旁虎視眈眈想把影響力深入南歐,西歐白人圈「目前」不願意黃種人插手白人事,所以歐洲能拖就拖。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">利用歐洲事件操作股市:大跌大買,小跌小買。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">中國今年的股市</span></u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">首先,中國股市是政策盤,全球股市是經濟盤。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">盤勢:<span lang="EN-US">2003</span>年本波經濟大多頭,預先到達高點是中國,預先到達低點也是中國<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">2010</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">年<span lang="EN-US">Q1</span>中國<span lang="EN-US">GDP</span>成長<span lang="EN-US">11.9%</span>,但是股市卻很爛。所以只有兩種可能原因:<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(1)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">預期經濟短期下修<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(2)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">股市嚴重低估<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">比較有可能是第<span lang="EN-US">(2)</span>種<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">房市:中共打房只為</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:red;">人民幣昇值做準備</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">。避免步入日本的<span lang="EN-US">1985</span>廣場協定後股房資產大泡沬的後塵。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">人民幣的三部曲</span></u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">:衝突、妥協、公布。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">衝突:<span lang="EN-US">4/8</span>美國財長蓋納從印度繞到中國見國家副主席王岐山,想必是為人民幣<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span>昇值之事<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">妥協:美國有<span lang="EN-US">8000</span>億的債權在中國;在歐洲失火後,中國是美國最大的貿易夥<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span>伴。中美兩國是一對怨偶。理不亂,剪不斷。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">猜測:兩個月內宣布人民幣的波動區間。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">打房:一定有短期的目的要達到。為人民幣昇值做準備。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">結論:預期人民幣昇值,中國人購買力擴大。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">投資方向:永豐亞洲民生消費、摩根富林明亞洲內需。應避開以房地產和金融為主的大部份中國基金和<span lang="EN-US">ETF</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">中國的變數</span></u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(1)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">內部:共產黨是否會長期執政,其在農村面臨強大的貧富壓力<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(2)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">外部:難道美國不會打壓中國的國力提昇,就像當年修理日本那樣?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">這兩個議題是最大的變數<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">台股受益者</span></u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">誰控制了中國的<b>食品</b>或<b>零售通路</b>就會大發財。<b>潤泰新</b>和<b>潤泰全</b>有<b>中國大潤發</b>的想像空間(美國三億人才<span lang="EN-US">400</span>家沃瑪,中國目前<span lang="EN-US">13</span>億人才<span lang="EN-US">128</span>家大潤發。且尹衍梁是建國<span lang="EN-US">60</span>年的國慶貴賓,在二十年前就開始設立獎助學金,與官方的關係台商無人能比),未來五到十年尹衍梁可能是全台首富,現在唯一的風險是尹衍梁的健康問題。而其兩隻個股的本益比會始終高估。另一零售股是<b>益航</b>投資的大洋百貨不到<span lang="EN-US">20</span>倍。該百貨主要在二三線城市中布局。其他通路還包括藍天、大聯大、百老匯。目前證交所還在爭取河南王<b>丹尼斯百貨</b>回台上市。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">台股將成亞洲重要集資市場</span></u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體; mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">紅籌股:安可科技、超級咖啡<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">如果造薛崎的作法:揚子江實業這個星期在台灣掛<span lang="EN-US">TDR</span>,<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">所有過去禁的東西現在都從香港來台灣。下個月國企<span lang="EN-US">H</span>股來台。第一家美系公司在台股掛牌。大成糖業是全中國最大的玉米和澱粉的供應商也來台掛牌。<span lang="EN-US"><br /><br /><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">目前台灣的電子業接單無可想像的好。所以回檔就是接。尤其有個產業叫<b><span lang="EN-US">DRAM</span></b>,因為<span lang="EN-US">iPad</span>上市四個月,熱銷<b>五百萬</b>台後仍短缺,造成<b><span lang="EN-US">DRAM</span></b>供貨不及的壓力。另一個很熱的產業是<b><span lang="EN-US">LED</span></b>。因此這是特定產業復甦與總經脫勾的現象。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">目前台灣的產業政策</span></u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">:<span lang="EN-US">(1)</span>電動車<span lang="EN-US">(2)</span>太陽能光電<span lang="EN-US">(3)</span>醫療器材ー規模都太小,只有少數人受益。看不太大台灣未來產業的未來動能。<span lang="EN-US"><br /><br /><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">技術指標<span lang="EN-US">VIX</span>和美元指數</span></u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">2010.04.25 Frank Lu</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">就認為<span lang="EN-US">VIX</span>現在<st1:chsdate year="2010" month="4" day="24" islunardate="False" isrocdate="False" st="on"><span lang="EN-US">2010/4/24</span></st1:chsdate>在數值<span lang="EN-US">16</span>實在太低了,市場的戒心太低了,只要某個經濟數據不如預期,就有可能大修正。事後看來,預測還頗準。<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span>短期:<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(1)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-size:12.0pt;color:black;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">VIX</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">跌破<span lang="EN-US">20</span>,請小心,沒有風險意識<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(2)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-size:12.0pt;color:black;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">VIX</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">昇破<span lang="EN-US">40</span>,市場即將落底,將反彈<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(3)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-size:12.0pt;color:black;"> </span><span style="font-family:新細明體; mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">美元指數跌破<span lang="EN-US">80</span>,美金走貶,投資積極<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(4)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:7.0pt;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-size:12.0pt;color:black;"> </span><span style="font-family:新細明體; mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">美元指數站上<span lang="EN-US">80</span>,美金走昇,投資戒慎<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">雷曼倒之前,<span lang="EN-US">VIX</span>是<span lang="EN-US">19</span>;上個月底到了<span lang="EN-US">16</span>,只有兩種原因:<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(1)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">投信的解釋:大多頭一片看好<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(2)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">可能正確的解釋:整個資本市場,失去風險意識<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><br /></span></u><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">操作永遠的鐵律</span></u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">.生是偶然,死是必然;用掉的是資產,留下的是遺產。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">.投資的路上:</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:red;">安全性<span lang="EN-US">></span>流動性<span lang="EN-US">></span>獲利性</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">.赤字倒閉是技不如人,黑字倒閉是智慧不足。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">.學習是為了提昇解決問題的能力,而非冀望學習後,找到「標準答案」<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">.世上唯一不變的就是變<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">-></span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:red;">看自己的行情,操自己的盤</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">投資的「流動性」非常重要。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><br /></span></u><u><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">亞洲崛起</span></u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">中國是一隻快速昇起的龐然巨鵰,其他跟隨在旁的小雁群是印尼<span lang="EN-US">(</span>亞洲最大的原物料供應國<span lang="EN-US">)</span>、越南、韓國、台灣、香港、新加坡、日本。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">印尼:三個看好原因:<span lang="EN-US">(1)</span>亞洲最大原物料國。<span lang="EN-US">(2)</span>平均年齡<span lang="EN-US">28</span>歲<span lang="EN-US">(3)</span>兩億人口的市場。金磚四國是<span lang="EN-US">2003</span>年高盛提出,印尼被提出金磚第五國話題性才一年。目前本益比還好,也是本次漲勢最凌厲的。</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">越南:小中國之稱,抄襲中國過去的發展路<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">韓國:韓國是中國概念股,中文系是大學生的第一志願,外派到大連瀋陽特多<span lang="EN-US"><br /><br /></span><b>綠能產業</b><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(1)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">掌握綠能原料國大賺<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">鋰:有相關的<span lang="EN-US">ETF</span>可以買。廿一世紀的新能源在玻利維亞,控制全球蘊藏量是<span lang="EN-US">52%</span>,所以中日都跑去玻利維亞開採鋰礦<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">(2)</span><span style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi- mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">政府輔助最大是歐洲,但歐債失火變成綠能公司最大利空,賠錢的危機大增,恐有很多綠能公司倒閉。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span style="font-family: 新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning:0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">結論:長線緩步增長,但短線大修正是必然,請做好調整。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-pagination:widow-orphan"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:新細明體;mso-bidi-mso-font-kerning: 0ptfont-family:新細明體;color:black;">-<o:p></o:p></span></p>77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-34688148193292357922010-05-08T17:16:00.002+08:002010-05-08T18:25:45.208+08:00Mr.6的Facbook行銷發表會主題:Mr.6 Facebook行銷<div>時間:2010.05.05</div><div>地點:犇亞證券 復興北路99號10樓</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>威麟的行銷案例分享</div><div>--------------------</div><div>2010/3 top 25 facebook games 人數銳減,其原因為Notification抑制效果。</div><div><br /></div><div>FBML頁籤目前有4億人使用,回訪率多於Google。</div><div><br /></div><div>最近成功行銷案例</div><div><ol><li>exclusively home</li><li>2010世界遊你創</li></ol><div>六大行銷趨勢</div><div><ol><li>Levis.com 的朋友商店(friends shop),上他們網站看到朋友的選擇</li><li>Campus Buddy和Wildfire平台式行銷的頁籤,可以讓用戶設立子組織</li><li>LBS案例有以下Four Square, Starbuck, Financial Times</li><li>Farmville 和 7-11合作推出虛擬序號、ToyStory 3的全美國試看</li><li>Subway一天選十個人送50元的禮券、Bing送農民幣。還有IKEA的Spam</li><li><a href="www.blueyourfirneds.com/en">Blue motion</a>、BestBuy的Recycle it on、Lets' all join Fins</li></ol>Fans Club愈常po文,fans愈容易回訪</div><div><ol><li>我是台中人</li><li>帶我去旅行</li></ol></div><div>操作粉絲時發現,全黑的廣告圖片,會讓人好奇加入,轉進率最高</div><div><br /></div><div>威挺講新科技 </div></div><div>-------------------</div><div>Open Graph將引導網路實名制-tag this photo的apps</div><div><br /></div><div>Mr.6 現在在做的行銷案-花旗聯合勸募</div><div>------------------</div><div>培養粉絲->互動話題->話題與口碑(app活動、塗鴨牆和頁籤三者交互使用)</div><div>影片中找一句話來行銷</div><div>粉絲互灌公益捐</div><div>頁籤-廣告+影片導入手法</div><div>頁籤-廣告+故事導入</div><div>頁籤-活動+捐款+加入粉絲</div><div>頁籤-結合email機制通知公眾</div><div>請大家使用<a href="http://mr6inc.com/show_app.php?app_id=3">愛心金幣機</a> ,花小小力量做公益</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div>77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-5642056721202253842010-05-08T13:02:00.006+08:002010-05-15T08:21:10.105+08:00賢能菁英讀書會 5/7 失落的幸福經典<div>時間:5/7 14:00-17:00</div><div>地點:忠孝東路四段46號10樓 陳安之訓練機構</div><div><br />賴佩霞部份</div><div><br /></div>很多人的夢想是來自自己的匱乏。自我察覺匱乏。<div>財富憂關我們內心的富饒</div><div>有強烈意圖是不一樣的,與神祈禱是種聯結達成意圖。</div><div>意圖+努力+熱情+恩典</div><div>信念是核心,宇宙存在的是良善</div><div>剔除「把自己看小」的現象</div><div><br /></div><div>Florence Scovel Shinn是 New Age始祖</div><div>內在不信任感會讓錢流失,常見是繼承者心中會有「配不配得這筆錢」的問題</div><div>世界不缺錢,缺愛。</div><div>寂寞跟人數無關,是內在狀態。</div><div>這個世界比我們想像良善多了。</div><div><br /></div><div>可多找別人幫忙,不能只有「施」而不「受」,如何讓別人來幫我忙也是一門功課。</div><div>當自己碰到狀況,不把時間浪費在催毀性的無意識中,儘快從那樣狀態提昇到建設性互動。</div><div>負向念頭帶來負向情緖,脫離無意識的拉扯。</div><div><br /></div><div>何篤霖(沒看錯)</div><div>做命理節目,看到很多人的問題就是卡在那邊,但就不願意改,即便算命師已點破,但是還是不願意改變。</div><div><br /></div><div>管家賢部份</div><div>先成為自己的貴人=>你要抱著給他一個有形無形的訊息,都是「禮物」</div><div>所有的機會都在聚會裡</div><div>三流賣產品、二流賣自己、一流用頂級客戶幫我賣</div><div>永遠創造被對方需要的價值</div><div>認識重要主要的貴人,週邊會有一群貴人。</div><div>實現夢想必須要透過面對現實</div><div>吸引而來-><-人->錢</div><div><br /></div><div>放下痛苦的記憶,接受富足的旨意</div><div><br />銷售:如何解決客戶的問題最重要</div><div>世界有個大總管,跟管的關係要好,才可以得到他想要的</div><div>3人我關係</div><div>2自己關係</div><div>1神我關係</div><div><br /></div><div>結交三種人</div><div>1腦袋比我好</div><div>2人脈比我好</div><div>3口袋比我深</div><div>懂得與人相處才有幸福可言</div><div>與人相處的技巧在於不斷地聚發出善意->結善緣->做善事->得善果</div><div>「人不喜歡被銷售,喜歡被了解」</div><div>一個成功的客戶會複製很多潛在的客戶</div><div>成功是一種慣性</div><div>1握有解決方案的人一輩子會有錢</div><div>2銷售=解決客戶的問題</div><div>所有機會都來自於聚會</div><div><br /></div><div>要時時唸『如果xxxxx,那該有多好」</div><div><br /></div><div>20-30看學力,30-40看能力,40-50看人際,50-60看財力</div><div>學力->解決問題能力->連人脈->有財力</div><div><br /></div><div>我們在社會最終的目的是幸福,而我們的工具是名和利。<br />永遠創造別人需要的價值</div><div><br />預告《會問問題,才會帶人》</div><div>雇用人以後要問「你知不知道我們的公司為何可以賺錢?」</div><div><br /></div>77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-78034701819490560172010-04-28T18:16:00.002+08:002010-05-08T16:30:22.998+08:00網路創意趨勢 2010.04.27<div><br /></div><div>創業</div><div>1.互相信任丶專業分工的團隊</div><div>2.堅決做自己覺得對的事</div><div>3.保持信念,相信自己做的事是對的</div><div>4.維持學習的態度</div><div><br /></div><div>2009 "Did you know?"</div><div><br /></div><div>目前美國青少年每月平均癹3000多封簡訊</div><div><br /></div><div>"Brand new mind"</div><div>3 question</div><div>1.aboundance</div><div>2.automation</div><div>3.asia</div><div><br /></div><div>1.Breaakthrough</div><div>2.creative</div><div>3.design</div><div>4.executive</div><div><br /></div><div>Killer app在很多人在用的時侯才叫Killer app。FB和twitter在開始兩三年沒人玩。</div><div>北美給創業者的時間有五年左右,亞洲給創業者太少時間。</div>77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-16936612603221222622010-04-06T08:55:00.001+08:002010-04-06T08:57:14.698+08:00回應 Fashion Stake案例有感:如果大家都想打破Middleman,那麼它絕不是夢想<span class="Apple-style-span" style=" color: rgb(96, 96, 96); line-height: 21px; font-family:Verdana, Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif;font-size:medium;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 6px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 5px; padding-left: 0px; font-size: 0.9em; line-height: 1.3em; ">不動產已經被證實只能當成「廣告」即便很多屋主以為他可以把案件放在591就能賣掉,但最後大多數仍得透過仲介幫他賣,好玩的是,仲介還是回頭幫他上591,即便照片相同,文字稿類同,結果就是不一樣。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 6px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 5px; padding-left: 0px; font-size: 0.9em; line-height: 1.3em; ">想用網路把仲介去middlemen都將徒勞無功,因為每件房子都是獨特的,即便是同一樓層也有視野隔局的不同,而上下樓層就是有視野景觀之別。</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 6px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 5px; padding-left: 0px; font-size: 0.9em; line-height: 1.3em; ">Mr.6也許該深入了解,為什麼網路無法把房仲去掉。原因是,房仲根本不是middlemen,房仲是negotiator。在遙遠的未來,AI可能會成為全能的negotiator,可是,目前的AI離這一步實在太遙遠了(話說回來,AI都能當negotiator的話,人還有活的意義嗎?)所以呢…就留給新的網路創業家不斷去去試誤吧!</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 6px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 5px; padding-left: 0px; font-size: 0.9em; line-height: 1.3em; ">保險比房仲容易一些些,因為它是規格化的商品。但在銷售過程中,仍需要 negotiate才可能提高/降低保額,或修改條件。制式的填表和提問,不見得真能契合準保戶的要求,更重要的是,對保險公司而言,完全契合準保戶的要求是太糟了,保險公司需要是更大筆的保費,要是大家都買定期壽險,國泰、新光那有錢去炒不動產?這時一定要有業務出馬談判,在夫妻兩個都在情況上,當面對老公說:「某某先生,我相信你很愛你老婆,是吧?你老婆在旁邊,現在是你證明自己不是嘴巴說說而已的時侯了」請問現在的AI能做到這種地步嗎?</p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 6px; margin-left: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-bottom: 5px; padding-left: 0px; font-size: 0.9em; line-height: 1.3em; ">只有規格化的商品和服務,在網路上才有空間,這是目前的狀況。即便你提的報紙,他也是規格化的商品。不動產和保險,只有其廣告有規格。內容的規格確變化太大。</p></span>77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-21068442514829225942010-03-09T07:42:00.003+08:002010-03-09T07:47:56.775+08:00手指斷掉也能像蠑螈那樣長回來快二十年前唸書時,就知道這玩意在研發。沒想到真的成真了。簡單的說,胚胎在發展在個體時,細胞會形分化作用,等到發展完成,分化就停了。而ECM是讓細胞再度啟動分化機制的玩意兒。請看這段影片。<div><br /><a href="http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/international/2010/02/24/wus.body.from.scratch.cnn?iref=allsearch">Body From Scratch</a></div><div><br /></div><div>PS:美國的科技確實有它可怕且超乎想像的地步。</div>77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-56918660545248802682010-02-08T20:37:00.002+08:002010-02-08T20:39:47.329+08:002010投資展望-張繼文<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">時間:2010/01/23</span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">主講人:張繼文</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">主辦人:本人等數名投資聚樂部幹部</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">2010</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">投資展望</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">-</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">ING</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">張繼文</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">2009</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">年要</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">buy and hold</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">,</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">2010</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">會大波動</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">今年是</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">V+U</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">型,其</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">U</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">稱為景氣的凹洞</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">若今年有昇息應要減少債卷,加碼股票</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">1</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">核心布局:投資等級公司債、高收益債</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">不要有含新興市場的</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">)<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">2</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">長線:中國</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">3</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">短線:原物料下跌,建議賣出</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">4</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">台股:資產重估,</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">最低下看</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: red; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">6700</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">,然後一路上漲到萬點</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">景氣好時買:</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(1)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">科技</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(2)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">原物料</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(3)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">能源</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">景氣壞時買:</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(1)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">公用</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(2)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">健護</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(3)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">電訊</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">中國:</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(1) </span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">原本的勞動薪資下降造成世界工廠的型態面臨轉變,現在因國內景氣變好,勞工薪資逐步上調。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">本,本年度預定低點在</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">2800-3000</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">之間</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(2) </span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">中國</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">CPI 1.7%-></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">快</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">2%</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">,一定會昇息,所以影響到原物料的價格。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">這次很多新興市場降息,下個泡沫是新興市場資產泡沫</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">巴西:建議出場,今年原物料會跌到年中</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">美股:建議賣出</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">利空:</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(1)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">商業銀行和投資銀行分家和課金融稅</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(2) Q1</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">可能利多出盡,美國鋁業劣於預期是指標</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">再進場時機:現在才開始下殺,金融是最慘,其他產業除生技外都被他拖累,建議先閃人等下殺波段平息後再看那個產業浮現商機來進場。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">日本:伺機進場</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span> </span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">一、利空出盡:</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(1)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">金融股很爛</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">-></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">中小企業展延三年</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(2)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">經濟很爛:亞洲需求減少</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l0 level1 lfo1;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(3)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">負債開發國家中最高</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">二、反彈機會:</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(1)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">日本股市落後美國</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">ISM</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">半年</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(2)2009</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">年</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">12</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">月開始外資進場</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(3)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">日本已經超賣,股價</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">/</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">淨值比約</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">60%~80%<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(4)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">日本將成開發國家一支獨秀</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(5)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">日本人開始買日股</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">三出場時機</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo2;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(1)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">設定為第一季末</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo2;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(2)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">日元貶到</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">100</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">以下</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l1 level1 lfo2;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(3)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">日本有機會填補雷曼缺口</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">韓國</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">2009Q4</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">最高,建議賣出</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">印度:建議出場</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">利空:</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l4 level1 lfo3;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(1)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">三高:負債比高、通膨高、利息高,有被降評之虞</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l4 level1 lfo3;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(2)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">農業佔</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">GDP 20%</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">,目前缺糧,財政困難</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">印尼:建議賣出</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">俄羅斯:伺機進場</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l3 level1 lfo4;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(1)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">財政赤字不如預期高,甚至比它的央行預估還低,因為央行預估是以油價</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: red; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">58</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">美元做計算</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l3 level1 lfo4;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(2)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">因應上一條,今年的負債比會下降,信評有機會上調</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">進出建議:布局點在</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">1300</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">附近,今年有上看</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">2200</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">的勢</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">生技業相對強</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">利多:</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(1)2006</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">年開始所有的藥都延遲,今年會陸續上市</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(2)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">健保法案沒過,生技醫藥股大漲</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">出場時機:</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(1)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">短打做一季或</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(2)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">放到國會的健保法案是否有通過,通過就快閃</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">原物料</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">利多和利空:</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo5;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(1)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">工業金屬</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">-></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">住宅、基建需求持續</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo5;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(2)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">農作物欠收</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo5;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(3)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">黃金一半需求是投資需求</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo5;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(4)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">中印目前在搶鐵礦砂</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo5;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(5)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">今年很缺甲肥</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo5;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(6)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">OPEC</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">只要油價下跌就會減產,一旦油價超過</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">100</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">美元,就快賣掉</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo5;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(7)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: red; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-large;">但</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">美元今年會反彈,預估會美元指數會從</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">78</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">彈到</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">80~86<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left:18.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;mso-pagination: widow-orphan;mso-list:l2 level1 lfo5;tab-stops:list 18.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(8)</span><span style="font:7.0pt "Times New Roman""><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">VIX</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">指數持續創低,原物料指數與其反相關</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">再度進場時機:原物料的修正預計到第二季末也就是六月才會平穩,有美林世礦之類的最好先閃。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><o:p><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">綠能基金</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">特大利空:</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(1)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">已經泡沫化完蛋了,開始有公司要申請破產,這種基金會步上網路基金的後塵-投資的</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">100</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">家公司只剩</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">Yahoo Amazon Priceline</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">然後被清算的前車之鑑,預估會有八成股票下市。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(2)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">中國的綠能公司流血殺價讓歐洲的政策補貼取消,亦把其他同業都殺垮了。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Arial; color: black; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">(3)</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">未來</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">2~3</span></span><span style="font-family: 新細明體; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: medium;">年,太陽能與製程一樣,供過於求。</span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:8.0pt"><o:p></o:p></span></p></div>77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-1989007471228952142009-02-17T10:37:00.003+08:002009-02-17T12:10:32.240+08:002009.02.17本週金融回顧<span style="font-weight: bold;">中國基金</span><br />最近國內匯豐要發行的匯豐中國動力基金,因為在信託法的架構下,年度的管理費會超過在香港發行的。但在香港發行的手續費會高於在台灣的。目前佔中國A股10%的中國基金,今年在台灣會上市約十檔以上。<br /><br />HSCE從2003年開始起漲到最高點有八倍半,超越00001.SS的三倍<br />000001.SS從2005年5月開始,漲到最高4.2倍,超過HSCE的3.1倍<br />YTD 000001.SS漲了25%,一般的分析師會認為會漲到50%,然後再跌下來。(中級反彈)但H股要看國際資金的行情,不見得會跟著A股一起漲。<br /><br />2000多萬人沒有工作,大旱103天讓連430萬人沒有水喝。廣東公安部估來找工作的200萬人中,有40萬人只買了單程票,找不到工作,準備出亂子。摩根大通龔方雄預言中國將有第二波刺激方案,投資教育、醫療保健、社會福利,如此才能讓農民把儲蓄的錢拿出來。<br /><br />乾旱的原因有可能是去年為了奧運射了太多枚消雲彈造成的氣侯變遷,目前又射了數千枚造雨彈,終於開始下雨了。4兆大刺激會造成相干人等又能大A特A,很多建設相關的公司又開始發財,也確實需要雇用大量人力來建設。<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">商品價格</span><br />旱災和農產品價格真的有無關係?從CRB指數看來,並沒有明顯的上漲,原本大家認為中國人要吃,會引漲糧價,但是現在看來沒有直接關係。但現在看38年商品市場中顯示黃豆、小麥、玉米的價格仍在高檔區,所以大家對糧食的預期是不夠吃。需求雖然下降,但供給還是不夠。經濟雖然衰退,但糧食還是不夠吃。<br /><br />原油一樣是需求減少,若是經濟狀況繼續不好,但價格仍然下不來,表示<span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">庫存一定是不夠</span>。如此可能有停滯性通膨的疑慮。<br /><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">貸款壓力減輕</span><br />2009年全世界的錢很多,都在找標的,工作機會變少,供需變少,找不到投資機會。而借貸成本太低,所以公司借貸和購屋的壓力減輕。<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">期貨基金</span><br />下一季會有黃金期貨基金進台灣,過去會漲50%,後來又跌35%,又漲50%,波動很大。<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">歐洲區</span><br />英國大慘,有無可能因為逼不得已,英磅轉換成歐元。歐盟27個,17國用的歐元相對表現強勢,結果週邊很多國家都想加入歐元區。蘇俄的股市跌9成1,盧布有無可能崩盤。俄羅斯有約兩成的工作者領用美元做薪資。<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">美元</span><br />美元還有一年左右才會在消除疑慮後開始貶值。77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-50406484070942238642008-12-14T11:02:00.004+08:002008-12-15T00:37:33.858+08:002009投資大趨勢-陶冬講題:<span lang="EN-US">2009</span>全球投資大趨勢<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span>時間:<span lang="EN-US">2008.12.07<br /></span><span style=";font-family:";font-size:100%;">主講:陶冬</span><span style=";font-family:";font-size:100%;"><br />主持:謝金河</span><br /><u><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><br /></span></u><u><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">2009</span></u><u><span style=";font-family:";">年的<span lang="EN-US">007</span>現象<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></u> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">第一個<span lang="EN-US">0</span>:<span lang="EN-US">0</span>成長,美、歐日衰退,美國衰退可能大於大家預期,全球同步零增長時代來臨。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">第二個<span lang="EN-US">0</span>:全球<span lang="EN-US">0</span>利率,美、歐、日、中都會逼近<span lang="EN-US">0</span>,貨幣政策超寬鬆時,財政政策採用超級凱因斯擴張的時代來臨。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">第三個<span lang="EN-US">7</span>:中國保<span lang="EN-US">7</span>大作戰,在投資信心衰退和消費下降中,政府採取異常財政擴張,只能讓中國未來三年的達成每年增長<span lang="EN-US">7-8%</span>,若中國統計局做假,也可能變成<span lang="EN-US">008</span>。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">中國過去五年雙位數的增長在兩個超級因素:<span lang="EN-US">(1)</span>加入<span lang="EN-US">WTO</span>變成世界工廠,帶動國內游資泛濫,工資上漲。<span lang="EN-US">(2)</span>中國房地產一個產業拉動了<span lang="EN-US">56</span>個產業,帶動世界上最大的石化產業擴張,在可預見未來,沒有能取代這兩個超級因素,所以預測只會有<span lang="EN-US">8%</span>的年增長率。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">中國過去三十年有三段時間經濟增長率在雙位數:<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">第一段-<span lang="EN-US">80</span>年代中間有五年超過<span lang="EN-US">10%</span>,主因有二<span lang="EN-US">(1)</span>農村改革<span lang="EN-US">(2)</span>獎勵鄉村企業,但在價格改革失敗後,中國成長趨緩。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">第二段-<span lang="EN-US">90</span>年上半期又五年超過<span lang="EN-US">10%</span>增長,主因有二<span lang="EN-US">(1)</span>擁抱市場經濟<span lang="EN-US">(2)</span>大量外資進入,最後被亞洲金融風暴打斷。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">第三段-過去五年前述的二項超級因素。現在被金融風暴阻斷。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><u><span style=";font-family:";">次貸的分水嶺</span></u><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 24pt;"><span style=";font-family:";">保爾森自認是華爾街老將,長期掌握市場反應,在救了貝爾史坦後,要在自由市場經濟劃出一條底線,不能讓納稅人幫投機客買單。即便有人提出<span lang="EN-US">CDS</span>市場會大亂,他也認為<span lang="EN-US">CDS</span>的市場只會震盪不會崩垮。所以他放任雷曼倒閉,結果引起幾家貨幣基金淨值虧損,造成投資者集體提領資金的現象,很快地同業拆借市場一片大亂,銀行之間因為對手交易風險寧可不可做拆借,讓經濟的肺部的資金市場發生嚴重的危機,導致六個星期內<span lang="EN-US">10</span>兆美元的市值被催毀,全球股市崩潰。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 24pt;"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 24pt;"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><u><span style=";font-family:";">股市的本益比發生變化<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></u></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">全球過去五年的<span lang="EN-US">P/E </span>在<span lang="EN-US">14-20</span>,瑞信預估全球盈餘是零成長的話<span lang="EN-US">P/E=9</span>倍;若盈利衰退<span lang="EN-US">20%</span>,<span lang="EN-US">P/E=11.5</span>倍;若盈利衰退<span lang="EN-US">40%</span>,<span lang="EN-US">P/E=15</span>倍。目前<span lang="EN-US">12</span>月開始有個反彈,也不過是熊市的強勢反彈,因為很多銀行存戶把錢轉到股利較好的藍籌股。但是<span lang="EN-US">P/E</span>的<span lang="EN-US">E</span>有可能改,熊市的前期,分析師還是比較樂觀。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><u><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">2009</span></u><u><span style=";font-family:";">年的美國<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></u></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">金融最壞的時間已經過去,但這是第一步,接來是實體經濟衰退巨浪將會造成更大的催毀。<b style="">銀行信貸嚴重緊縮</b>其一政策是把申請車貸的信用分數提高,把<span lang="EN-US">46%</span>的購車人排拒絕在外,汽車業銷售額連帶下滑。目前就業調整也才剛開始,過去平均每個衰退週期,勞工收縮是<span lang="EN-US">2.1%</span>,目前才<span lang="EN-US">1.1%</span>。從<span lang="EN-US">1998-1999</span>年開始,美國人開始寅吃卯糧帶來過度消費,這次次貸危機造成消費收縮,附帶就業惡化導致房屋貸款、汽車貸款、信用卡消費貸款全面收縮,引發投資意願下降的惡性循環。美國的房地產在二戰後沒有一年是房地產下跌的,目前已向下調整<span lang="EN-US">20%</span>,隨著市場調整,還可能會再下調<span lang="EN-US">20%</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><u><o:p></o:p></u></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><u><span style=";font-family:";">商品的未來<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></u></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">去槓桿化引發全球市場衰退,投資人集體提領效應造成商品市場快速滑落,但是長期商品牛市還沒有結束,因為過去十年來<span lang="EN-US">30</span>億人過的好生活還沒結束。影響是有一批商品開發商會死掉,但存活者也無力擴張。以油價為例,上次中國經濟年增長<span lang="EN-US">8%</span>是<span lang="EN-US">1998-2002</span>年間,<span lang="EN-US">2002</span>是油價<span lang="EN-US"> 27</span>至<span lang="EN-US">31 </span>美元間浮動,<span lang="EN-US">2002</span>年煤才<span lang="EN-US"> 25 </span>美元、銅也才<span lang="EN-US">1500</span>美元,目前不敢說所有價格到<span lang="EN-US">2002</span>年,但下修趨勢蠻明顯的。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">零利率帶來零通張和負通漲,可能狀況:<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">(1)</span><span style=";font-family:";">日本失去的十年:流動性陷阱變成<b style="">負債型消費型緊縮</b>造成惡性循環。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">(2)</span><span style=";font-family:";">葛林斯潘的泡沫:<span lang="EN-US">2004</span>年全球金融資產爆炸成長。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">大簫條的原因是央行一系列錯誤:<b style="">提高利率</b>、<b style="">任用銀行倒</b>、<b style="">貿易保護</b>,全球掙扎後會變成日本的負債型消費型緊縮還是葛林斯潘泡沫,兩個現象中間只差一窗之隔:取決於銀行的信心能否把銀行大量現金放出來出來,讓現金流動性增加沒辦法進入實體經濟。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">2009</span></b><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";">後的中國<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">中國的<span lang="EN-US">PMI</span>採購經理人指數已低於<span lang="EN-US">50</span>分<span lang="EN-US">( 50</span>以上擴張<span lang="EN-US"> 50</span>以下收縮<span lang="EN-US">)</span>,目前認為中國只有<span lang="EN-US">6%</span>的<span lang="EN-US">GDP</span>成長率,其中有一項原因是非政府的投資不見了,而這是媒體飽和式的轟炸造成的,有一個「直擊華爾街」不斷地誇張放大美國的慘狀,讓<span lang="EN-US">46%</span>的經營者看不到未來,大家都停止投資。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">中國的因應之道:<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><span style="">1.<span style=";font-family:";font-size:7;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style=";font-family:";">北京<span lang="EN-US">4</span>兆人民幣的投資,不論是已經開始,已經計畫,還是將要做的都不管,在財政部把各地財長叫來開會後,將原本的緊縮政策變成擴張政策。大量的地方主導基建已做了可行性評估,之前被北京給擋住,此時全部被放行了。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><span style="">2.<span style=";font-family:";font-size:7;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style=";font-family:";">地方收入有很大部份是房地產批地收入,現在房地產價格下跌,造成地方收入縮水,到明年中地方政府會有資金短缺的狀況,那時侯中央才會開始接手。主導一切基建。未來重要基建有幾個:西向東的輸氣工程、北向南的高鐵鋪設、全國電網的架構、西部鐵路樞杻的建立還有連絡農村的公用道路。<span lang="EN-US">4</span>兆人民幣的基建會佔總<span lang="EN-US">GDP</span>的<span lang="EN-US">17%</span>非常的大。但是地方所提出來的基建竟然誇張的總值是<span lang="EN-US">18</span>兆人民幣佔了<span lang="EN-US">GDP</span>的<span lang="EN-US">80%</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><span style="">3.<span style=";font-family:";font-size:7;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style=";font-family:";">中國過去是靠五個力量-出口、消費、投資、房地產還有結構性的生產力提昇來拉動,但現在要靠財政擴張來達成雙位數經濟增長也很困難。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><span style="">4.<span style=";font-family:";font-size:7;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style=";font-family:";">兩星期內一口氣減息<span lang="EN-US">180bp</span>,預期還要再減<span lang="EN-US">200bp</span>,房地產若再跌,會減<span lang="EN-US">300bp<o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><span style="">5.<span style=";font-family:";font-size:7;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style=";font-family:";">因為全球消費需求降低,短期貶值成型對出口影響不大。貶值是政治信號,是做給沿岸的企業和勞工看。人民幣不可能大貶,否則引發中美貿易大戰,知期內有機會看到<span lang="EN-US">7RMB</span>兌<span lang="EN-US">1USD</span>的現象。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><span style="">6.<span style=";font-family:";font-size:7;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span style=";font-family:";">目前中國的生產力提昇大於世界上其他區,收入提昇速度也大於其他區。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 18pt; text-indent: -18pt;"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";">中國房地產兩要害<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style=";font-family:";">開發商現金流不足造成破產危險<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style=";font-family:";">購屋者預期價格會再跌<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">北京救房市有八招,前七招已無用,用了第八招就是北京不說話,讓地方自己做。地方政府和開發商關係好,如重慶宣布按揭可以抵稅,地方政府會選出創新手段來刺激房市,把泡沫延後推遲。<span lang="EN-US">2008-2009</span>年開發商會受惠地方政府的刺激手段稍歇喘息。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";">中國銀行的優勢<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">1</span><span style=";font-family:";">國家主導<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">2</span><span style=";font-family:";">資產負債表比華爾街同業好看<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">3</span><span style=";font-family:";">利用的槓桿不高</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";">中國消費市場<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">長遠來看收入增長會繼續帶動消費,目前<span lang="EN-US">20-29</span>歲(獨生子女)收入增加最快很敢消費也很願意借錢,如招商銀信用卡主要是<span lang="EN-US">35</span>歲以下,重視品牌。<span lang="EN-US">80</span>年後生的,男女性不燒飯,七日中有六日外食,一日去父母家。他們會拉低父母儲蓄率,如買房、買車,預計<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年中國消費量超過美國。這些消費會造就中國的偉大公司如中國版的可口可樂、麥當勞和<span lang="EN-US">Google</span>。陶冬當年去美國讀書,老師勸學生買二到三美元的可口可樂和麥當勞,結果他沒買;到了香港工作,他的房東買了四港元買匯豐,他也沒買;現在中國的偉大公司正在成型,他可不想錯過。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><b style=""><span style=";font-family:";">中國未來的成長動力<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">十年前中國的中國的成長動力是<span lang="EN-US">(1)</span>出口爆炸成長<span lang="EN-US">(2)</span>長期通縮,期間發生亞洲金融風暴、朱榕基宏觀調控的噪音。五年前中國的成長動力是<span lang="EN-US">(1)</span>房地產的起漲<span lang="EN-US">(2)</span>金融資產熱<span lang="EN-US">, </span>期間發生宏觀調控和本次金融風暴這兩個噪音。未來十年,中國的成長要靠<span lang="EN-US">(1)</span>人民幣上漲錢進海外<span lang="EN-US">(2)</span>消費崛起改變經濟成長。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">Q and A<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">1.</span><span style=";font-family:";">黃金、太陽能未來走勢<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span>陶:黃金過去兩年與美元關係已被打破,在去桿桿效應下,黃金開始向<span lang="EN-US">600</span>以下走,但長期來看會再上漲。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">謝:台灣有<span lang="EN-US">3D:DRAM TFT-LCD </span>太陽能全球大部份跌掉<span lang="EN-US">8-9</span>成,<span lang="EN-US">JP morgan</span>說友達明年虧<span lang="EN-US">700</span>多億、奇美亦要虧<span lang="EN-US">700</span>多億,目前茂迪現金<span lang="EN-US">30</span>億、負債<span lang="EN-US">50</span>多億,沒有和同樣一樣去買高價原料,未來會勝出。今年<span lang="EN-US">11-12</span>月是台灣企業考驗期,因為很多訂單不見了。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">2.</span><span style=";font-family:";">中國社會是否會不安?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">陶:農民工失業,社會不安昇,中國只有城鎮失業率,沒有含農民工的失業,出口產業勞工裁完了,現在影向內需產業也得裁員,社會壓力確實會增大。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">3.</span><span style=";font-family:";">美國的未來?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">陶:美元糺喪失信用,個人可以不存,但對全球央行來說,儲備不得不用,因為歐日亦失去信用。美國在這波衰退後,有可能最早復甦因為<span lang="EN-US">(1)</span>科技創新<span lang="EN-US">(2)</span>企業彈性<span lang="EN-US">(3)</span>政府加強紓困和基礎建設。目前的問題在銀行不借錢所以<span lang="EN-US">BDI</span>跌到<span lang="EN-US">600</span>以下這種不正常的現象。出口商的<span lang="EN-US">LC</span>開不出來,<span lang="EN-US">WalMart</span>的貿易中間人拿不到錢,船運公司也借不到錢。可是<span lang="EN-US">WalMart</span>不可能讓貨架空掉,他總得想辦法。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">4.</span><span style=";font-family:";">兩岸三通對台灣的好處?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">陶:中國<span lang="EN-US">QDII</span>沒有人問陶冬台灣的問題。陳雲林事件看出馬政府無力解決島內問題的能力。<span lang="EN-US">2009</span>年突破不大。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">5.</span><span style=";font-family:";">未來三年的走勢?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">陶:明年<span lang="EN-US">007</span>,後年<span lang="EN-US">118</span>,大後年<span lang="EN-US">229</span>。短期金融價格反彈出現了,直到銀行的閘口打開,經濟才會活起來。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">6.</span><span style=";font-family:";">大陸開始大量發信用卡,是否也會有卡奴問題?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">陶:因為沒有卡友的信貸紀錄,一定會發生,這是必經過程。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">7.</span><span style=";font-family:";">美元的未來怎麼看?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">陶:大量錢跑到國庫債避難,但現在最大的危機是美國政府信用問題,美國能擔保所有的美國企業嗎?現在美元是沒穿新衣的國王,只是沒有人去講出來,要是有人指著美元說他沒穿衣服,我看我和謝社長都要轉行了。(全場大笑)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">8.</span><span style=";font-family:";">底部在那?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">陶:預期熊市底部在那?不明智啊,投資銀行的話誰會相信?金融危機會把某些產業打入石器時代。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /><span style=";font-family:";"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";" lang="EN-US">9.</span><span style=";font-family:";">南非幣最近還蠻強的,是否可轉到南非幣?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=";font-family:";">謝:買南非幣不如買冰島克朗,現在冰島克朗有<span lang="EN-US">30%</span>才是首選,但你要確定他不會貶值(全場大笑)<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-39012601356598116452008-12-03T21:04:00.001+08:002008-12-03T21:07:28.483+08:00新設公司 最低資本額取消新設公司 最低資本額取消<br />【聯合報╱記者丁萬鳴、許玉君、賴昭穎 /台北報導】<br /> <br />2008.12.03 03:26 am<br /><br /><br />未來台灣將出現「零元公司」、「一元公司」。為了促進「微型企業」發展,經濟部將修改公司法,廢除公司設立登記最低資本額限制。未來財力薄弱的小民想設立公司,不必傷腦筋募集資金、或是弄假的存款證明。<br /><br />現行公司法規定,新設公司必須登記資本額,並授權經濟部以行政命令規定最低資本額,「股份有限公司」五十萬元,「有限公司」廿五萬元。<br /><br />官員指出,公司資本額的規定沒有太大意義,坊間代辦公司登記的會計師事務所都有一套對策。<br /><br />經建會表示,世界銀行「二○○九年全球經商環境報告」,台灣在「開辦企業」的效率非常落後,因此行政院決定將「開辦企業」列為優先改進,廢除公司設立登記最低資本額制度。<br /><br />經濟部官員說,公司法修正草案將在本月底前送行政院,希望明年三月前完成修法程序。如果明年三月立法院未能修法三讀,經濟部將先以行政命令規定「資本額最低只需一萬元」。等到三讀後,再取消最低資本額限定。<br /><br />成立公司取消資本額限制會計師界多表贊成。資誠會計師事務所所長薛明玲昨晚表示,資本額限制這種「形式管理」本來就可以不要,很多國家也沒有這種限制。<br /><br />信實會計師事務所所長羅友三則說,取消後,未來民眾商業往來,少了政府的「背書」,未來得更重視徵信,才不會被騙。<br /><br />【記者丁萬鳴/台北報導】經濟部商業司調查,有七十五個國家未對公司設立的最低資本額限制;為了和世界接軌,政府也決定取消公司資本額的硬性規定。但外界擔心一旦取消資本限制,會不會造成紙上公司氾濫?<br /><br />主管公司登記的商業司官員表示,公司的資本額要多少,應該由股東決定,政府不應該干預。如果股東認為公司不要資本額可以經營下去,就可選擇登記資本額為零。「零元公司」能不能經營下去,市場自會決定。<br /><br />有人擔心台灣因為取消公司資本額登記,會成為犯罪集團的洗錢中心。但官員分析,犯罪集團如果要虛設行號行騙,應該不會成立一個資本額為零的公司,反而比較有可能故意提高公司資本額的規模,才能掩人耳目。<br /><br />【2008/12/03 聯合報】<br />-----------------------------------------<br /> 復甦加速的要件之一,就是這個法案了,終於,台灣也在商業法律上走上進步國家的路。笨蛋阿九總算做對一件像樣的事。可是,若是讓人還得受限現有的工商登記辦法,對創業的人還是會有折扣。不景氣要讓更多人能車庫創業,才能加速復甦速度。77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-57547672834338653552008-10-22T09:27:00.003+08:002010-05-15T07:42:01.397+08:00CCIM筆記本2008.09.06<br />美國 2000-2005 1/6約5000萬美國人從北向南遷<br />原因:1945- baby boomer immigration<br />北方:商用不動產跌價<br />南方:氣侯好,需求上昇。公用設施、水電、醫院、休閒需求上昇。<br />美國過去10年來,員工佔用辦公室面積正在下降,降到目前 每個員工/100sqt,成都約200台北是150。美國那麼少的原因是採開放空間,沒有隔間的辦公室<br /><br />RREEF.com<br />做research總經分析,亦可找出辦公室<br />辦公室的類別租金正在上昇<br />購物中心的租金正在上昇 <br />亦可看到不動產下跌市場:曼谷、香港77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-16010639931038325482008-10-15T19:47:00.000+08:002008-10-15T19:48:20.647+08:00加速老社區換臉 住宅區獎勵容積提高 獎勵容積將放寬限制<span id="newcontent"><p><span class="boldtitle">獎勵容積將放寬限制</span></p><p> 〔記者林秀姿/台北報導〕為了鼓勵老舊社區更新速度加快,獎勵容積將放寬限制,並鼓勵大面積及完整街廓更新,其中獎勵容積最高可達10%,更新標的又以法 定容積4%以下為重點,更新規模超過3千平方公尺者,最高獎勵除了法定容積12%外,每增加100平方公尺還可另給予法定容積的千分之3,法令相關問題可 電洽都市更新處:2321-5696。</p><p> 台北市政府昨天修正通過「台北市都市更新單元規劃設計獎勵容積評定標準」,都市發展局表示,此次修正除了參考中央的容積獎勵辦法,增加無障礙環境、都市防 災、綠建築的獎勵項目外,主要是因為住宅區的法定容積率低於商業區甚多,誘因不足導致住宅區更新速度緩慢,為鼓勵北市老舊住宅區進行重建更新,所以提高住 宅區獎勵容積額度,以增加更新誘因。</p><p> 都市發展局表示,修正內容包括針對法定容積率為400%以下的更新建築,只要符合「與鄰近地區建築物之量體、造型、色彩、坐落方位相互調和及無障礙環境、都市防災」者,獎勵容積額度將由現行法定容積的6%提高至10%。</p><p> 「更新基地規模」的上限值也從現行法定容積的12%提高至15%,其中「完整街廓」獎勵容積額度,法定容積率為400%以下者,由法定容積的2%提高至5%。</p><p> 而大範圍的更新也提高獎勵容積,面積達8千平方公尺以上者,8千平方公尺內的部份以法定容積12%核計外,每增加100平方公尺,還可以獲得法定容積的千分之3。</p><p> <span class="boldtitle">綠建築獎勵容積最高10%</span></p><p> </p></span>另外,為了鼓勵建築基地及建築物採綠建築設計,凡取得綠建築候選證書及通過綠建築分級評估銀級以上者,可以爭取法定容積6%至10%的獎勵額度。<br />---------------------------<br />好像太少了點77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-84792636321581942182008-10-15T19:38:00.000+08:002008-10-15T19:39:47.798+08:00策略再開發地區 可獲100%容積獎勵* 2008-10-15<br /> * 工商時報<br /> * 【于國欽/台北報導】<br /><br /> 營建署長葉世文昨日表示,「都市更新建築容積獎勵辦法修正案」將於今(15)日公布實施,即日起位於水岸、港灣、鐵路及捷運場站週邊「策略性再開發地區」辦理都更,最高可獲100%的獎勵容積,而想獲100%獎勵容積者必須為綠建築、同時也要留設5成的基地面積做開放空間,以提升都市環境品質。<br /><br /> 內政部表示,現行建築容積獎勵最高只有50%(法定容積的50%),為型塑像日本「六本木之丘」成功經驗,因此參考日本劃訂為「高度再利用地區」提高獎勵容積的作法。即日起只要被政府指定為「策略性再開發地區」,最高可獲100%的容積獎勵,亦即可達「法定容積的2倍」。<br /><br /> 依新修訂辦法,「策略性再開發地區」包括位於鐵路、捷運場站400公尺範圍內,位於都會區水岸、港灣周邊適合高度再開發地區,另外配合重大發展建設的都更案,經地方主管機關報中央主管機關核准者也可以。<br /><br /> 至於87年容積管制未全面實施前的現有建物,其容積率可能早已是法定容積的2倍,那麼進行都更還有獎勵嗎?營建署都更組組長陳興隆表示:「如果位於一般地區,政府會先承認其現在容積,再加30%的獎勵容積,如果位於策略性再開發地區,則在承認其現在容積外,再加50%的獎勵容積。」<br /><br /> 內政部表示,以往都更案雖訂有最高上限50%獎勵容積,但是由於地方訂定的獎勵規定缺乏彈性,一般只能拿到25%至30%。為讓都市更新更具吸引力,此次修法將獎勵項目擴至省能減碳、綠建築、智慧型建築、生態城市等9項,以讓都更案儘量能取得最高獎勵上限。<br /><br /> 陳興隆表示,「策略性再開發地區」獎勵容積遠高於一般地區,享有此優惠者必須對都市空間品質做出貢獻,因此在9項獎勵項目中須具備4項:(1)整體規劃設計要提升附近環境水準(2)具綠建築標準(3)都更的規模需為一完整的街廓,至少5000平方公尺(4)留設基地面積50%以上做為開放空間,供社會大眾使用。<br />----------------------<br />看來有點搞頭,可以開始開發囉!77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-74070981110297180652008-10-15T19:29:00.001+08:002008-10-15T19:33:06.210+08:00公司最低資本額,擬廢除工商時報─侯雅燕<br />2008.10.15<br /><br />為改善我國經商環境,推升我國在世界銀行報告評比的排名,經部商業司將研議修正公司法,廢除有限公司與股份有限公司最低資本額。<div><p>商業司表示,世界銀行於今年9月10日發布的「2009全球經商環境報告」,在181個經濟體中,我國總體排名退步。10項評比指標中,以「開辦企業」第119名指標處相對劣勢。「開辦企業」的細項「最低資本」的規定排名第157名。</p></div><div><p>經建會以世界銀行評比指標,作為改善我國經商環境依據,將「開辦企業」列為優先積極改進指標,並希望藉由廢除公司設立登記最低資本額制度的方式,可望推升我國於世界銀行2010年經商容易度報告的排名。</p></div><div> <p> 經濟部指出,有限公司及股份有限公司的最低資本額,今年4月24日起,已分別調降一半即修正為有限公司新台幣25萬元,及股份有限公司50萬元。</p></div><div><p>經部參照國際情況,包括英國雖對上市公司有資本額限制,對私營公司的最低要求只需1位股東持有1英鎊的股本即可。</p></div><div><p>德國對有限公司也有設立最低資本額,不過,德國成立微型企業公司最低資本額為1歐元,惟此類公司必須將1/4的年盈餘轉為資本,逐步達到有限公司資本。</p><p>--------------------------------------------------</p><p>總算,做了一件比較對的事。但是,設立公司的地點不知可否再放寬鬆點呢?</p></div>77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-9252759055810683022008-10-05T11:16:00.006+08:002010-05-15T07:41:07.770+08:00台北上海論壇-網路組時間:2008.10.05<br />地點:福華文教會館(台北市新生南路三段10號)<br /><br />大陸<br /><ol><li>網路視頻最火紅:前10名募得3.3億用戶。中國網民有2.53億,其中1.8億是網路視頻用戶。其中短視頻最受歡迎。台灣只有1260萬用戶而已。目前網路視頻沒有老大地位,前三家吃未來市場。可能的狀況是網路視頻和電視機結合。</li><li>移動互聯網:6億用戶,手機上網用戶2.3億。3G iphone的衝擊,10萬家以上在提供服務。移動互聯網在未來10年取代PC互聯網</li><li>SNS:開心網->白領使用者為主,明年至後年將是85%</li></ol>老謝<br />日本這次金融海嘯,開始吃下華爾街的公司。<br />美國憲法規定,沒有一家銀行的存款可以超過10%,現在已有違憲狀況出現。<br />連台塑也有買二房。<br />中國有1兆1900億的稅收,中國政府現金滿滿<br /><br />網路組:<br />meetic.fr<br /><br />viral video: thriller<br />大陸的segmentation太嚴重<br /><br />未來的網站取向是:<br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 102, 102);">企業 </span>國際 極簡 社群 病毒 <span style="color: rgb(51, 204, 0);">行銷</span><br />Yammer是給企業用的twitter<br /><br />Mixi和無線結合收會員費<br /><br />台陸的差異<br /><br />台灣以簡化為主。大陸卻要繁多的內容。且大陸有<span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">政治述求</span>。<br />網路新公司要做的是:準備->開槍->瞄準。否則時間會輸人。77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-40594080346275755482008-10-03T20:18:00.002+08:002008-10-03T20:21:49.507+08:00組合廁所<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/10/02/article-1065857-02DE287200000578-176_233x423.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px;" src="http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/10/02/article-1065857-02DE287200000578-176_233x423.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/10/02/article-1065857-02DC3E5A00000578-575_468x732.jpg"><img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px;" src="http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2008/10/02/article-1065857-02DC3E5A00000578-575_468x732.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br /><h1><span style="font-size:100%;"><a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1065857/The-9-000-Swiss-Army-knife-bathroom-foldable-showers-cupboard-loo.html">The ¢G9,000 'Swiss Army knife' bathroom with foldable showers, cupboard and even a loo </a></span></h1>西方人的創意,真的比亞洲人強多了。唉~77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9640908.post-73175373421452765622008-09-30T15:59:00.005+08:002008-09-30T17:11:57.170+08:00九月財經筆記日本是國際資金最大供應來源,有<span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">12兆美金</span>的存款(可能更多,因為很多日本人把日元鎖在家裡的保險箱)<br /><br />7000億美金沒通過的原因:<br />1意識形態做對(民主黨 VS 共和黨)<br />2選民不同意由政府買單<br />結果:失業人口激增<br /><br />CDS 擔保債券最大承接公司 AIG 旗下子公司,故美國政府買下AIG,並處分其資產如AIG的飛機租賃。<br /><br />9/7 美國接管二房<br />9/15 雷曼倒勢<br />9/17 AIG接管<br />9/18 TSB接管HBOS<br />9/29 歐洲的Fortis倒掉<br /><br />中國<br />奧運魔咒?<br />北京對全中GDP貢獻只有3.5%,效應對中國沒有太大影響。<br /><br />中國GDP 9%~8.58%持續好幾年<br /><br />北京建設只佔全國3.5%<br />相對於'98漢城佔全南韓 25%<br /><br />騰籠換鳥->台商走人到內地和越南,韓商落跑回南韓->而大陸企業接手成功。<br /><br />H股不回A股。為何巴菲特買米亞迪,不買鴻海,因為米亞迪未來接入中國大陸較容易。<br /><br />中國:儲蓄/勤實,海外賺錢匯回祖國。<br />拉美:天然資源+政策<br /><br />可Parking的保守型基金<br />Aviva: 天達環策略基金、環球債券、AHL<br /><br />俟美國大選後,再看財經政策、財經班底、美國對全球佈局,準備進場,香港的A股和H股。<br /><br />台股的支撐會發生在5000點,關鍵可能是:<span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">遺產稅降為10%,大筆資金會回國</span>。<br />台灣有三翼:美國、日本、中國<br /><br />美股跌破11000是壓力,支撐是11000,要是破了11000,會出人命的。<br /><br />港股的支撐在16000,壓力區會落在10000-12000<br />港股有兩翼:中國和美國。<br /><br />就看圖形說故事吧,這些是形態學的範圍。77 UP THE WOLDhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05863058765936419857noreply@blogger.com0